🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."