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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.